2022 Elections in Serbia: The Return of the Opposition?

Abstract

The 2022 elections in Serbia have not produced surprising results, nor led to changes of government at any level, with the ruling Serbian Progressive Party maintaining its dominance of Serbian politics. The elections were, however, important, as a point in which the opposition parties ended the boycott of democratic institutions and returned to the parliament. In this election analysis, we describe the political context of the elections, marked by the long-term democratic backsliding, the Covid-19 pandemic measures, the constitutional referendum, mass environmental protest mobilization, and finally the invasion of Ukraine. We explain the ways in which the institutional framework for holding elections has changed and also what has remained unchanged, and how these circumstances affected the candidates and their campaigns. We provide an overview of opinion polls before election day, as well as results of parliamentary, presidential, and Belgrade city elections, and then discuss the election outcomes. The analysis concludes with an overview of post-election political dynamics and discusses possibilities for the opposition parties after their return to the aforementioned representative bodies.