TY  - JOUR
AU  - Ćirković, Milan M.
PY  - 2013
UR  - http://rifdt.instifdt.bg.ac.rs/123456789/19
AB  - I reconsider a type of counterfactual argument often used in historical
sciences on a recent widely discussed example of the so-called “rare
Earth” hypothesis in planetary sciences and astrobiology. The argument is
based on the alleged “rarity” of some crucial ingredient for the planetary
habitability, which is, in Earth’s case, provided by contingent evolutionary
development. For instance, the claim that a contingent fact of history which
has created planet Jupiter enables shielding of Earth from most dangerous
impact catastrophes, thus increasing Earth’s habitability, leads often to the
conclusion that such state-of-affairs must be rare in the Galaxy. I argue that
this reasoning is deeply flawed, for several closely related reasons. In addition,
the relevance of the philosophical problem of transworld identity for
this kind of historical reasoning in science is put forward. This highlights
many explanatory problems one faces when using historical counterfactuals
in study of complex, nonlinear dynamical systems – and bolsters the relevance
of philosophy for evaluation of scientific explanatory claims.
T2  - Filozofija i društvo / Philosophy and Society
T1  - Counterfactuals and Unphysical Ceteris Paribus : an Explanatory Fallacy
T1  - Protivčinjenični iskazi i nefizički ceteris paribus : jedna eksplanatorna greška
SP  - 143
EP  - 160
DO  - 10.2298/FID1304143C
ER  - 

@article{
editor = "Jovanov, Rastko",
author = "Ćirković, Milan M.",
year = "2013",
abstract = "I reconsider a type of counterfactual argument often used in historical
sciences on a recent widely discussed example of the so-called “rare
Earth” hypothesis in planetary sciences and astrobiology. The argument is
based on the alleged “rarity” of some crucial ingredient for the planetary
habitability, which is, in Earth’s case, provided by contingent evolutionary
development. For instance, the claim that a contingent fact of history which
has created planet Jupiter enables shielding of Earth from most dangerous
impact catastrophes, thus increasing Earth’s habitability, leads often to the
conclusion that such state-of-affairs must be rare in the Galaxy. I argue that
this reasoning is deeply flawed, for several closely related reasons. In addition,
the relevance of the philosophical problem of transworld identity for
this kind of historical reasoning in science is put forward. This highlights
many explanatory problems one faces when using historical counterfactuals
in study of complex, nonlinear dynamical systems – and bolsters the relevance
of philosophy for evaluation of scientific explanatory claims.",
journal = "Filozofija i društvo / Philosophy and Society",
title = "Counterfactuals and Unphysical Ceteris Paribus : an Explanatory Fallacy, Protivčinjenični iskazi i nefizički ceteris paribus : jedna eksplanatorna greška",
pages = "143-160",
doi = "10.2298/FID1304143C"
}

Jovanov, R.,& Ćirković, M. M.. (2013). Counterfactuals and Unphysical Ceteris Paribus : an Explanatory Fallacy. in Filozofija i društvo / Philosophy and Society, 143-160.
https://doi.org/10.2298/FID1304143C

Jovanov R, Ćirković MM. Counterfactuals and Unphysical Ceteris Paribus : an Explanatory Fallacy. in Filozofija i društvo / Philosophy and Society. 2013;:143-160.
doi:10.2298/FID1304143C .

Jovanov, Rastko, Ćirković, Milan M., "Counterfactuals and Unphysical Ceteris Paribus : an Explanatory Fallacy" in Filozofija i društvo / Philosophy and Society (2013):143-160,
https://doi.org/10.2298/FID1304143C . .