Party system institutionalization in Serbia over the course of three consecutive parliamentary elections (2012, 2014, 2016)

Abstract

Political scientists often consider transitional party systems are less institutionalized than those in more developed democracies. In this context, the paper will examine the impact of different factors on the level of party system institutionalization in Serbia, over the course of three recent electoral cycles. For this purpose, authors will create Index of institutionalization, a tool for measuring the changes of relevant factors in three individual time points (2012, 2014, and 2016). Index will include: electoral volatility (vote transfer between the cycles); strength of party identification; strength of ideological and organizational linkages between voters and parties (as oppose to more personal links between voters and leaders); and level of trust in political parties. Moreover, not just due to the relatively large number of political parties in electoral competition, but also because of widespread tendency of excessive coalition making in Serbia, the index will also include factors determining the fragmentation of party system. The latter will be determined on the basis of measuring Laakso-Taagepera Index of effective political parties in legislature, calculated for 2012, 2014, and 2016. Depending on trends of the index, authors will draw conclusions on the process of party system institutionalization-in connection not just to the frequent elections, but also to the overall stability of Serbian political system.